This is a fascinating analysis of how Middle East diplomacy thrives—or falters—based on visibility. The contrast between the Abraham Accords' secrecy (and success) and the 2023 Saudi-Israel talks' public unraveling is striking. It underscores a key lesson: in a region where spoilers like Iran and Hamas are quick to exploit divisions, discretion isn’t just strategic—it’s essential.
Trump’s pivot toward quieter, Arab-centric diplomacy while sidelining Israel’s public role seems like a deliberate recalibration. By decoupling the U.S.-Saudi deal from immediate normalization, he’s avoiding the pitfalls of 2023 while laying groundwork for a future breakthrough. The emphasis on bilateral partnerships (nuclear, defense) first, with normalization as a later ‘surprise,’ mirrors the Abraham Accords’ playbook—minus the Palestinian blind spot that fueled backlash.
Your point about timing is critical: a Gaza ceasefire and U.S.-Saudi pact may be prerequisites, but the real test will be whether quiet diplomacy can address Palestinian grievances enough to sustain long-term stability. If Trump can thread that needle—balancing secrecy with inclusivity—this approach could indeed revive normalization when the moment is right.
Insightful read, and a compelling case for why sometimes, the best deals are the ones negotiated in the shadows."
Really well-written, but the Palestinian voice feels sidelined here, just as it was in the Abraham Accords. Trump’s inclusion of Abbas in talks is a gesture, but the “Riviera” plan sounds like a nonstarter for Palestinians. If normalization hinges on Gaza’s resolution, shouldn’t Palestinian leaders have a bigger seat at the table? How do you see their role evolving in these secret talks?
Trump’s focus on building strong ties with Arab partners and cutting big deals with the Saudis while keeping Israel out of the headlines for now looks like a smart, strategic move toward eventual peace. But whether it works depends on the right timing, a stable region, and actually dealing with the core issues.
Interesting take! It’s wild how Trump’s approach with Saudi Arabia might seem like a contradiction to his Israel stance, but maybe that’s the genius of it all. By keeping the spotlight off Israel, he could be paving the way for smoother normalization talks between Saudi and Israel that we don’t even see coming. Who knows what’s happening behind closed doors? It’s definitely a strategy that could reshape alliances in the region!
I don't think Trump will succeed in normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel unless there are practical solutions to the Palestinian issue and the establishment of an independent state.
You powerfully illustrate the fragile nature of Middle East diplomacy, where timing and tactics can shape history. The contrast between secret and public negotiations underscores how transparency, while democratic, can empower spoilers. Trump's apparent pivot to quiet diplomacy reflects lessons learned from 2023—where publicity may have unintentionally invited violence. In such volatile contexts, secrecy may sometimes protect peace.
Insightful analysis on secret diplomacy's effectiveness in Middle East peace efforts; Trump's strategic shift to behind-the-scenes talks aims to avoid sabotage and build stable, long-term agreements. Well considered!
Trump’s approach might look contradictory at first—deepening ties with Saudi Arabia while pushing for Israeli normalization without a major spotlight—but it could be a strategic move. By keeping the focus on broader regional cooperation, he may have been trying to ease the Saudis into a deal without forcing a public stance on Israel too early. It's also very possible that key elements of this strategy happened behind closed doors—concessions, guarantees, or sequencing steps—that we simply don’t see yet. Sometimes diplomacy works better when it’s not all out in the open.
This is a fascinating breakdown. What might look like Trump distancing himself from Israel is actually a calculated move — by keeping Israel out of the spotlight, he's giving Saudi normalization a chance to quietly recover from the fallout of October 7. The contrast between the 2020 Abraham Accords and the 2023 Biden-led talks makes a strong case for secret diplomacy in this region. Sometimes what looks like silence is actually strategy. There's clearly a lot happening behind closed doors, and it seems Trump is betting that success comes not from headlines, but from surprise.
Interesting breakdown of Trump's approach. It’s surprising how much was happening behind the scenes with Saudi Arabia while keeping the focus off Israel. A lot to think about here.
Honestly, this take made me think. On the surface, Trump’s strategy with Saudi Arabia seems like he’s ignoring the whole Israel angle, but maybe that’s the point. Quiet moves behind the scenes might actually get more done than loud headlines and photo ops. Could be there’s way more going on under the radar than people realize — and this kind of approach might avoid the usual political mess that comes with Israel being in the spotlight. Lowkey a smart play if it pans out.
While Trump's approach to Saudi Arabia and Israel might appear contradictory on the surface, it could actually reflect a calculated strategy or involve behind the scenes dynamics we're not privy to, especially in the context of the Saudi-Israel normalization talks.
A sharp analysis. If Trump is downplaying Israel’s role to avoid the backlash seen in 2023, it shows he’s learned the risks of public diplomacy in the Middle East. Secret talks may protect progress, but lasting peace still requires all key players to step into the light eventually.
Trump’s Saudi visit reflects a bold, transactional peace strategy prioritizing economic deals and regional diplomacy over traditional alliances and transparency.
I have personally believed in Trump since day one, honestly if you are keen and thorough in your observations Trump is a very strategic person and he always moves in the right direction. I believe this approach is for the best of everyone- the US, SA and the world at large
This is a fascinating analysis of how Middle East diplomacy thrives—or falters—based on visibility. The contrast between the Abraham Accords' secrecy (and success) and the 2023 Saudi-Israel talks' public unraveling is striking. It underscores a key lesson: in a region where spoilers like Iran and Hamas are quick to exploit divisions, discretion isn’t just strategic—it’s essential.
Trump’s pivot toward quieter, Arab-centric diplomacy while sidelining Israel’s public role seems like a deliberate recalibration. By decoupling the U.S.-Saudi deal from immediate normalization, he’s avoiding the pitfalls of 2023 while laying groundwork for a future breakthrough. The emphasis on bilateral partnerships (nuclear, defense) first, with normalization as a later ‘surprise,’ mirrors the Abraham Accords’ playbook—minus the Palestinian blind spot that fueled backlash.
Your point about timing is critical: a Gaza ceasefire and U.S.-Saudi pact may be prerequisites, but the real test will be whether quiet diplomacy can address Palestinian grievances enough to sustain long-term stability. If Trump can thread that needle—balancing secrecy with inclusivity—this approach could indeed revive normalization when the moment is right.
Insightful read, and a compelling case for why sometimes, the best deals are the ones negotiated in the shadows."
Really well-written, but the Palestinian voice feels sidelined here, just as it was in the Abraham Accords. Trump’s inclusion of Abbas in talks is a gesture, but the “Riviera” plan sounds like a nonstarter for Palestinians. If normalization hinges on Gaza’s resolution, shouldn’t Palestinian leaders have a bigger seat at the table? How do you see their role evolving in these secret talks?
Trump’s focus on building strong ties with Arab partners and cutting big deals with the Saudis while keeping Israel out of the headlines for now looks like a smart, strategic move toward eventual peace. But whether it works depends on the right timing, a stable region, and actually dealing with the core issues.
Interesting take! It’s wild how Trump’s approach with Saudi Arabia might seem like a contradiction to his Israel stance, but maybe that’s the genius of it all. By keeping the spotlight off Israel, he could be paving the way for smoother normalization talks between Saudi and Israel that we don’t even see coming. Who knows what’s happening behind closed doors? It’s definitely a strategy that could reshape alliances in the region!
I don't think Trump will succeed in normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel unless there are practical solutions to the Palestinian issue and the establishment of an independent state.
You powerfully illustrate the fragile nature of Middle East diplomacy, where timing and tactics can shape history. The contrast between secret and public negotiations underscores how transparency, while democratic, can empower spoilers. Trump's apparent pivot to quiet diplomacy reflects lessons learned from 2023—where publicity may have unintentionally invited violence. In such volatile contexts, secrecy may sometimes protect peace.
Insightful analysis on secret diplomacy's effectiveness in Middle East peace efforts; Trump's strategic shift to behind-the-scenes talks aims to avoid sabotage and build stable, long-term agreements. Well considered!
Trump’s approach might look contradictory at first—deepening ties with Saudi Arabia while pushing for Israeli normalization without a major spotlight—but it could be a strategic move. By keeping the focus on broader regional cooperation, he may have been trying to ease the Saudis into a deal without forcing a public stance on Israel too early. It's also very possible that key elements of this strategy happened behind closed doors—concessions, guarantees, or sequencing steps—that we simply don’t see yet. Sometimes diplomacy works better when it’s not all out in the open.
This is a fascinating breakdown. What might look like Trump distancing himself from Israel is actually a calculated move — by keeping Israel out of the spotlight, he's giving Saudi normalization a chance to quietly recover from the fallout of October 7. The contrast between the 2020 Abraham Accords and the 2023 Biden-led talks makes a strong case for secret diplomacy in this region. Sometimes what looks like silence is actually strategy. There's clearly a lot happening behind closed doors, and it seems Trump is betting that success comes not from headlines, but from surprise.
Interesting breakdown of Trump's approach. It’s surprising how much was happening behind the scenes with Saudi Arabia while keeping the focus off Israel. A lot to think about here.
Honestly, this take made me think. On the surface, Trump’s strategy with Saudi Arabia seems like he’s ignoring the whole Israel angle, but maybe that’s the point. Quiet moves behind the scenes might actually get more done than loud headlines and photo ops. Could be there’s way more going on under the radar than people realize — and this kind of approach might avoid the usual political mess that comes with Israel being in the spotlight. Lowkey a smart play if it pans out.
While Trump's approach to Saudi Arabia and Israel might appear contradictory on the surface, it could actually reflect a calculated strategy or involve behind the scenes dynamics we're not privy to, especially in the context of the Saudi-Israel normalization talks.
A sharp analysis. If Trump is downplaying Israel’s role to avoid the backlash seen in 2023, it shows he’s learned the risks of public diplomacy in the Middle East. Secret talks may protect progress, but lasting peace still requires all key players to step into the light eventually.
Trump’s quiet diplomacy may sidestep backlash, but sidelining Israel raises deeper regional tensions.
Trump’s Saudi visit reflects a bold, transactional peace strategy prioritizing economic deals and regional diplomacy over traditional alliances and transparency.
I have personally believed in Trump since day one, honestly if you are keen and thorough in your observations Trump is a very strategic person and he always moves in the right direction. I believe this approach is for the best of everyone- the US, SA and the world at large