Part 3: Trump's Return: The End of Global Idealism?

Putin; The Last American - The Global Power Dynamics of Georgia in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War (3/4)

Trump's return to the White House signals more than just another American presidency – it marks a possible farewell to post-Cold War idealism in favor of hard-nosed realism. In a world already trending toward regional power centers and pragmatic alliances, Trump's approach might actually sync better with emerging realities than his critics care to admit.

The Georgian Balancing Act

Georgia, a case I’ve been analyzing for quite some time, clearly illustrates the clash between reality and wishful thinking. For years, Western policymakers pushed an agenda that often ignored the country's complex position¹. The Georgian Dream government, despite Western criticism, has maintained a delicate balance that reflects geographic and economic realities. They've kept the peace with Russia while pursuing economic ties with Europe – exactly the kind of practical approach that might flourish under a second Trump term.

This balancing act makes sense. Georgia sits at a crossroads between powers, much as it has for centuries. A Trump presidency might actually give Georgia more room to pursue its natural role as a regional bridge rather than being pushed toward an artificial single-vector policy. When you look at history, Georgia has typically prospered most when it's maintained good relations with all its neighbors, not when it's been forced to choose sides.

The Georgian Skeptic

That being said, let's be clear though - betting Georgia's future on any particular shift in U.S. policy would be naive. While the Biden administration was not favorable towards Georgian political interests (to say the least…), the truth is, Georgia might not even make it onto Trump's radar in any meaningful way. He might be too focused on headline-grabbing deals with bigger players to care much about what happens in Tbilisi. For all the talk of change, the massive U.S. foreign policy machine - with its thousands of bureaucrats, established policies, and institutional habits - could just keep rolling along as usual.

And it's not just about Washington. The pressure on Georgia comes from all directions. European bureaucrats won't suddenly change their tune. The web of Western NGOs, funding streams, and diplomatic carrots and sticks won't vanish overnight. Brussels will still push its agenda, international organizations will keep filing their reports, and Western media will maintain its particular lens on Georgian politics.

Congress, with its own ideas about Georgia and its own power to shape policy, might keep pushing the same old line regardless of who sits in the White House. After all, plenty of lawmakers have built their careers on being hawks, and they're not likely to change their spots just because Trump wants to do deals.

Smart money in Tbilisi would be on keeping options open. Sure, a Trump presidency might create some new opportunities for a more independent foreign policy. But counting on it would be like betting the farm on a weather forecast - interesting to think about, but not something you'd want to stake your future on.

Ukraine: Time for Hard Truths

The Ukraine situation needs a reality check. After two years of conflict and hundreds of billions in Western aid, we're looking at a grinding stalemate². Trump's skepticism about unlimited military support might actually force a more clear-eyed assessment of what's achievable. Rather than endless escalation, we might see a push for practical solutions that consider all parties' security interests.

The current approach has led to massive displacement, economic devastation, and regional instability. A more transactional Trump policy might prioritize stabilization and reconstruction over ideological victories. This could mean tough compromises, but it might also mean fewer lives lost and a chance for civilians to rebuild.

Shifting Global Dynamics

Russia looms large in this picture. The West's post-2014 approach of increasing sanctions and isolation hasn't achieved its goals. Trump's deal-maker mentality could open doors to more productive engagement. This doesn't mean giving Moscow a blank check, but rather acknowledging that great powers have interests and finding ways to accommodate them without sacrificing core principles.

The Black Sea region tells this story in microcosm. Turkey, Russia, and regional powers have deep historical ties and legitimate interests here. Rather than trying to micromanage this complex region from Washington, a Trump administration might let more organic relationships develop. This could actually enhance stability by allowing local powers to find their own equilibrium.

The NATO Question

Trump's NATO skepticism hits a nerve because it challenges comfortable assumptions. The alliance needs updating for current realities. European nations, particularly Germany, have hidden behind American security guarantees³ while pursuing their own economic interests. A more transactional approach might actually strengthen NATO by forcing members to take defense seriously rather than relying on American promises.

Economic Realities

Trade and energy ties bind this region together in ways political rhetoric can't change. The natural gas routes⁴ through Georgia, Turkey's role as an energy hub, Russian resources – these create interdependencies that outlast political cycles. A Trump presidency might acknowledge these realities rather than trying to reshape them through sanctions and pressure.

A New Framework

Looking ahead, we might see international relations built more on practical interests than ideological alignment. This could mean:

• Recognition of traditional spheres of influence

• More emphasis on regional solutions to regional problems

• Less interference in internal affairs of other nations

• Focus on trade and economic ties over political conditions

• Respect for historical relationships and cultural bonds

The Way Forward

Some will see this shift as cynical realpolitik triumphing over values. But there's another way to look at it: as a return to diplomatic realism⁵ that might actually reduce global tensions. When great powers respect each other's core interests and smaller nations have room to balance between them, we often see more stability than when one side tries to impose its values on others.

This doesn't mean abandoning principles, but rather pursuing them through practical engagement rather than confrontation. It means accepting that different regions may find different paths to stability and prosperity, rather than insisting on a one-size-fits-all approach.

For those watching these changes unfold – whether in governments, businesses, or civil society – the key will be adapting to a world where practical interests trump ideological purity. It might not be comfortable for those used to American unipolarity, but it might better reflect the multipolar reality we're already living in.

The bottom line? A second Trump term could accelerate trends already reshaping global politics. Whether that's good or bad might depend less on our political preferences and more on our ability to adapt to a world where pragmatism beats idealism, and regional realities matter more than global visions.

1. Cooley, Alexander, and Lincoln Mitchell. "No Way to Treat Our Friends: Recasting Recent U.S.-Georgian Relations." The Washington Quarterly, 32(1), 2009, pp. 27-41.

2. Kagan, Robert and Frederick W. Kagan. "The Price of Success: The Military Cost of Supporting Ukraine." Foreign Affairs, September/October 2024.

3. Braw, Elisabeth. "Germany's Hollow Defense Budget." Foreign Policy, March 2023.

4. Marketos, Thrassy N. "Eastern Mediterranean Energy Geopolitics: The Regional Impact of Natural Gas Discoveries." Mediterranean Quarterly, 35(2), 2024.

5. Mearsheimer, John J. "The Rise of Regional Powers and the Return of Realpolitik." International Security, 48(4), 2024.